2011年6月17日星期五

Caballero#1:金融危机中对安全资产的需求

美联储美联社发布了一个叫做该地区的杂志,这些地区与领先的经济学家持续出色的采访。2011年6月发行接受Ricardo Caballero的采访,谁是麻省理工学院经济部主席。为了避免使这篇文章的百科全书长度,我将分为三个部分:Caballero在金融危机中对安全资产的需求,在金融危机期间的道德危害问题,以及如何在这些日子里做宏观经济学。但这三个帖子中的摘录只是划伤了面试的表面,整个事情都值得阅读。

在卡巴雷罗看来,金融危机的根本原因是全球金融资产的短缺,尤其是高评级的固定收益资产。在描述金融危机时,他说:

"It’s a story in two steps. The first, present at least since the Asian crisis, is that the world has experienced a shortage of assets to store value. Emerging and commodity-producing economies have added an enormous demand for assets that is not being met by their limited ability to produce these assets. I believe this global asset shortage is one of the main forces behind the so-called global imbalances, the low equilibrium real interest rates that preceded the crisis, and the recurrent emergence of bubbles. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, I think these phenomena are not the result of loose monetary policy, but rather the other way around: Monetary policy is loose because an asset shortage environment would otherwise trigger strong deflationary forces. ...

"This is the second step, which began in earnest after the Nasdaq crash, when foreign demand for U.S. assets went back to its historical pattern of being heavily concentrated on fixed income ... and especially on highly rated instruments. ...The enormous demand for U.S. assets, with a heavy bias toward “AAA” instruments, could not be satisfied by U.S. Treasuries and single-name corporate bonds, and that imbalance generated huge incentives for the U.S. financial system to produce more “AAA” assets. As a result, we saw both the good and the bad sides of the most dynamic financial system in the world, in full force. Subprime loans became inputs into financial vehicles, which by the大量法并通过原则tr能够创造“AAA”仪器来自那些不是。......

“遗憾的是,通过施工,当大数字法律不起作用时,由较低质量资产产生的AAA批评是脆弱的,而且宏观经济和全身冲击是脆弱的。也就是说,这种创造安全资产的方式可能能够创造-aaa资产但不是-aaa资产。换句话说,这些资产对宏观经济震动并不是很有弹性,尽管他们可能会达到AAA风险标准。......


“原则上,这并不是一个大问题,但是当高度杠杆系统的重要机构开始将这些宏观脆弱的仪器(直接或间接地通过专用车辆或SPVS这是一场迟早会发生的事故;AIG和投资银行本应该更清楚,但低资本要求实在难以抗拒。”