2011年6月14日,星期二

标记在价格测量上的BIL

克利夫兰美联储银行的布伦特迈耶对罗切斯特大学的标记毕马尔斯进行了很好的面试,专注于价格测量的主题。以下是Bils的一些评论:

在为什么价格测量事项:“我对价格测量的兴趣真的出现了我与[斯坦福经济学家] Pete Klenow的讨论。我们的兴趣总是在思考通胀和价格的思考中。这是事实上,无论你在价格上消除什么,你都会影响你的衡量标准收入和经济增长。因为如果你超过1%的通货膨胀,那么说,每年1%的真实增长,它每年真的是2%。好吧,这意味着增长率加倍!“

论卫生保健价格的通货膨胀和质量变化:“如果我把今天的医疗成本和1800年相比,我现在可以去买一堆水蛭,而且几乎不用花什么钱。我可以享受1800年的医疗保健。如果你有一个条件,你有10000美元在今天的医疗价格得到治疗,或者10000美元在1960年代与1960年代技术价格,我不认为这很明显,人们会想要回到过去让他们重要的健康状况处理。从这个意义上说,我不知道是否存在通货膨胀。很难说医疗保健行业长期以来存在很大的通货膨胀。”

关于质量改进和汽车价格:"My first car was a 1983 Accord, which cost $9,600. It was a great car, but it didn’t have any of the safety equipment that you have today. It didn’t have power windows. It didn’t have air conditioning. It didn’t have many features. If you took that same car—it did get good gas mileage, actually—and you tried to sell it as a new car today, I don’t think you would get $9,600 for it, if you had to compete with what’s out there."

在为什么消费者价格的一些变化影响宏观经济国民收入比其他国家收入更多:“消费价格指数并不是衡量实际收入状况的理想指标。这也是我认为汽油是个问题的部分原因,因为它是进口商品。当价格上涨时,实际收入会损失很大。而这里生产的商品,实际收入的损失是需要更多资源来生产。如果我们生产食物的效率下降,然后食物价格上涨,这是收入的损失。如果价格出现上涨,那么农民——出售食品的人——至少会从价格上涨中得到一些好处。”


论储层调整的价格测量不精确:"There’s a classic example for vehicles. If you look at gas efficiency, miles per gallon, everything else equal, people would rather get better gas mileage. There’s not much question about that. But if you’re using a hedonic equation, and you say everything else that I observe, how much more are people willing to pay for better fuel efficiency? You actually get a negative number. If I take two vehicles, the characteristics I enter for them, plus miles per gallon/fuel efficiency, I’ll see the one that gets better miles per gallon tends to go for a lower price. ... [T]here are very limited characteristics that we’re entering about the vehicle. So all these unmeasured characteristics that people like in their cars tend to be in a luxury car, and we’re not recording all those. They may not care so much about the fuel efficiency; they want performance of the engine. So when I, as a price measurer, look just at this, I’ll price fuel efficiency negatively. That means that if all the cars in the country got more fuel efficient, and we employed the hedonics literally, we would say inflation went up. Even with computers there are problems like this. These hedonic coefficients jump around a lot."