2011年11月2日星期三

如果国家规模相对于人口如何?世界地图

联合国人口司司长董事Joseph Chamie董事,现在的移民研究中心董事,是在2011年第三季度的采访中采访了西南经济,这是达拉斯的出版物:
记录:从世界人口爆炸转移到全球老化 - 与约瑟夫····················································································································

面试包括其中一个有用的挑衅性地图:如果它被扭曲,世界地图就会看起来像是这样一个国家的大小相对于其人口?预计模式是:在北美,加拿大缩小和墨西哥的增长。在世界其他地区,俄罗斯缩小和中国和印度的成长。当人口加权时,日本看起来很大;澳大利亚看起来很小。非洲似乎比南美洲更大。对我来说,这些地图还强调未来几十年的经济增长可能与美国经济如何参与世界其他地方发生的增长有关。


Chamie还指出,世界人口的增长率急剧放缓。下一个主要人口统计学杂志之一将是人口老龄化。很快,世界上以上65名老年人将在世界历史上第一次超过儿童人数。

"Two thousand years ago, world population was estimated at about 300 million. It reached the first billion mark at the beginning of the 19th century—the estimate is about 1804—when Thomas Jefferson was U.S. president. The second billion mark was reached in 1927. We had a tripling of world population from 1927 to near the end of the 20th century, when it reached 6 billion. We’re now approaching 7 billion people.
为什么会发生这种情况?这是因为我们发生了这件精彩的事情:死亡率下降。这种死亡率降低是人类最大的成就。每个政府都希望看到降低死亡率和更长的生活。世界受益于现代医学和公共卫生;抗生素当然;还更好的营养,更好的设施,更好的工作条件。落后的背后是出生率的变化。出生率和死亡率之间的这种差异产生了通常称为人口爆炸的差异。我们达到60年代后期的峰值人口增长率约为2.1%,我们达到了80年代后期约8700万人的峰值。 The latest United Nations projections show a world of about 10.1 billion people by the end of the 21st century. ..."

"While the 20th century was the century of demographic growth (and this growth will continue through the 21st century—we are likely to add 2 to 3 billion people), the world’s population is aging. Very soon, we will see a reversal where the number of children, which has historically been more than the number of people above 65, will become less than the elderly. The aging of the world’s population will be pervasive; it will affect every household. It will affect the economy, social interactions, voting patterns, lifestyles."