2017年3月25日星期六

2017春季布鲁克斯论文经济活动

我的猜测是那些阅读这篇博客的人的合理比例已经熟悉了布鲁克斯论文经济活动,但对于其他人来说,这是一个古老的期刊出版了两次,通常是在高调主题上有5-6篇论文。论文是语气和方法的学术,但通常比将来的经济学杂志所出现的更具可读性。2017年春季所有文件的版本现在可用,虽然它们还没有完全定稿和排版。该期刊的六篇论文(简要描述摘自布鲁金斯学会网站)包括:

21世纪的死亡率和发病率,“通过安妮案和爵士爵士(Angus Deaton)
在《21世纪的死亡率和发病率》(Mortality and发病率In the 21st century)一书中,普林斯顿大学教授安妮·凯斯(Anne Case)和诺贝尔奖得主安格斯·迪顿(Angus Deaton)对他们的研究进行了后续研究开创性2015年研究这证明了中年白人死亡率的急剧上升。在他们的新论文中,作者发现,中年“绝望死亡”(因吸毒、酗酒和自杀而死亡)在高中或以下学历的非西班牙裔美国白人中上升得最为显著——这一模式与其他富裕国家的总体中年死亡率明显不同。当结合进展放缓与死亡率两大杀手心脏病和癌症元凶中产年岁增加“绝望的死亡”自1990年代末以来导致中年白人非西班牙裔美国人的死亡率或高中学历或少超过少数民族的整体中年死亡率组。
沿着TookTower:美国低技能移民的崛起和堕落,“通过哥登H. Hanson,Chen Liu和Craig McIntosh
在《沿着瞭望塔:美国低技能移民的兴衰,”加州大学圣地亚哥分校的Gordon Hanson、Chen Liu和Craig McIntosh项目认为移民美国的年轻人,由于墨西哥和其他拉美国家劳动力供应增长疲软,来自拉丁美洲的低技能工人的增长将继续放缓,直到2050年出现逆转——即使美国的移民和边境政策没有改变。此外,在未来15年里,已经在美国居住的40岁以上的拉丁美洲出生的居民人口将增长82%,这给美国政策制定者带来的挑战比如何阻止或减缓低技能移民带来的挑战更大。“美国目前关于移民政策的辩论有点落后的感觉。挑战不在于如何阻止大规模的劳动力流入(这一目标已经基本实现),而在于如何管理大量定居的无证移民。大量投资修建边境壁垒或扩大美国边境巡逻队并不能解决这一挑战。
2009年后产出令人失望的恢复,“由John Fernald,Robert Hall,詹姆斯股票,和马克W. Watson
In "The disappointing recovery of output after 2009," the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's John Fernald, Stanford's Robert Hall, Harvard's James Stock, and Princeton's Mark Watson find that the unexpectedly slow growth since 2009 in output—the economy’s measure of growth—is unlikely to improve because it has been caused by structural, non-cyclical factors and not just the financial crisis and subsequent recession. The authors also find evidence that weak government spending at all levels delayed the recovery. They attribute some of the unusually slow growth early in the recovery to cuts in federal spending from the sequester, the end of the of fiscal stimulus from the American and Reinvestment Recovery Act (ARRA), and changes in state and local level spending due to the recession’s causing home prices to collapse, which in turn impacted property tax receipts.
低利率世界的货币政策,“由Michael T. Kiley和John M. Roberts
In “Monetary policy in a low interest-rate world,” the Federal Reserve Board’s Michael T. Kiley and John M. Roberts find that rates could hit zero as much as 40 percent of the time—twice as often as predicted in work by others—according to standard economic models of the type used at the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The constraint on monetary policy imposed by frequent episodes of interest rates at zero could make it harder for the Fed to achieve its 2 percent inflation objective and full employment, and the analysis suggests that a monetary policy that tolerates inflation in good times near 3 percent may be necessary to bring inflation to 2 percent on average. As a result, there are a number of steps the Federal Reserve and other central banks can take to help better achieve full employment and price stability in this low interest-rate environment.

安全性,流动性和自然感兴趣的速度作者马可·德尔内格罗(Marco Del Negro)、多梅尼科·詹诺尼(Domenico Giannone)和马克·p·詹诺尼(Marc P. Giannoni)
在“安全,流动性和自然的兴趣率”中,Marco del Negro,Marco Giannone,Marc P. Giannoni和Andrea Tambalotti纽约美联储银行辩称,即世俗的利率下降(real rate of return that prevails when the economy is at its potential) in the U.S. is primarily due to the strong demand for safe and liquid assets, and especially U.S. Treasury securities, provoked in part by foreign and domestic crises over the past 20 years. The analysis suggests the natural rate could rebound in the near future. The authors also note that the “decline in interest rates poses important challenges for monetary policy, but it also matters for fiscal policy and for our understanding of the nature of business cycles.”
欧洲是最佳政治区域吗? “由Alberto Alesina,Guido Tabellini和Francesco Trebbi
在《欧洲是最佳政治区域吗?》哈佛大学的Alberto Alesina、博科尼大学的Guido Tabellini和英属哥伦比亚大学的Francesco Trebbi分析了从1980年到2009年15个欧盟国家和挪威的文化指标,以确定所谓的欧洲政治计划是否“过于雄心勃勃”。作者发现,尽管经历了几十年的经济和政治一体化,但欧洲人之间的文化差异正在增加,民族主义正在抬头。报告作者认为,欧盟正处于十字路口:它必须在环境保护、移民、恐怖主义、外交政策和促进研究和创新的规模经济利益与日益高涨的民族主义成本之间做出选择。虽然大多数欧洲人似乎倾向于更多的欧盟层面的决策,但他们似乎对这些政策的执行方式感到不满,而且他们在国家路线上存在分歧。