2017年3月2日星期四

美国上市公司的下降

"For the past 20 years, public corporations in the United States have been disappearing. The number of U.S.-based companies listed on Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange has dropped by over half since 1996. The dot-com bust of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008 account for some of this decline, yet the downward trend has continued with little let-up, even as the markets have reached record highs. The number of IPOs in the past five years is less than the number in 1996 alone. Something has gone wrong with the public corporation in the United States."

所以在“阶段”开始时写Gerald F. Davis。企业后:在新经济中消失的公司,“为第三种方式思维坦克(2017年2月1日)。他继续:
“大部分衰退是什么行业?在DOT-Com繁荣的后果中,许多软件和在线服务提供商出口。电信工业的出口和合并很快就会遵循。自2008年以来,有商业和投资银行数量较大。电子制造业和大会的外包导致了这些行业许多美国公司的关闭和兼并。制药业也看到了许多关闭和整合。“
戴维斯还指出,在现代全球化的经济中,由于大型生产设施的销售股票,通常需要筹集资金。如果公司主要基于信息技术资本,则可以租赁或租用需要的东西。如果公司基于生产货物,则通常可以将生产外包给其他国家的设施。如果您需要为美国生产设施筹集资金,您通常可以转向私募股权公司,它现在管理超过4万亿美元的资产,而不是需要卖股票。戴维斯写道:
"Thus, Flip was the best-selling portable video camera in 2009, with 100 employees in San Francisco. Vizio was the best-selling television brand in the U.S. in 2010, with a staff of 200 in Irvine. If you can send your specifications to Alibaba, you can become a major electronics firm too, without having to leave your apartment. It’s not just in technology: if you want to launch a new beer, or pet food, or tomato sauce brand, there are generic vendors happy to produce your recipe and get it to store shelves. If you want to start an airline, there are used jets in the Arizona desert waiting to be leased and consultants eager to help you complete the government paperwork. If you want to start a bank, Infosys has a `bank in a box' suite of software called Finacle, providing all the functionality people need through an online service.
克雷格Doidge。G. Andrew Karolyi和Reném.Stulz有一篇在内的文章金融经济学杂志论“美国上市差距”。(早期版本可用国家经济研究局工作文件#21181,2015年5月出版)。他们查看来自许多不同国家的数据,并研究所列公司数量的数量通常与各种经济和制度因素相关。他们发现,1999年,美国上市公司的数量大致是一个人所期望的,利用国际比较基于这些因素,但从那时,美国公开上市公司的数量已经下降,所以现在这个数字较少超过一半的人将基于国际比较预测。他们写在摘要:
这个“美国上市差距“符合美国公司列表的净利润下降。自1996年上市峰值以来,所有公司规模和行业的倾向较低,新的列表率低,劳动力率高。高级汇率占列表差距的46%,较低的新列表率为54%。高级汇率是通过公开上市公司的异常高收购率来解释的。
戴维斯进行了类似的论点,指出导致新的公开上市公司的速率初始公开发售已经很低,而现有的人数 - 通常是由于上市公司之间的合并 - 已经很高。

但最终,如果美国公开上市公司的数量下降,为什么重要呢?戴维斯提供了两个关注的主要原因:
“首先,公司的变化形状与就业关系的变化和磨损的社会安全网的变化。它的高峰,AT&T雇用了近一百万人;通用汽车有80万人; GE有400,000人。这些公司提供了坚实的, long-term, well-remunerated employment. The firms that have gone public since 2000 rarely create employment at large scale; the median firm to IPO after 2000 created just 51 jobs globally, and with rare exceptions (e.g., Alphabet/Google, with 62,000 employees), the jobs are in low-wage, low-opportunity sectors like retail and food service. ...
"Employment stability, income mobility, and inequality are tough problems, and it is unlikely that economics will allow us to return to an anomalous golden age of the corporation. But the U.S. is also uniquely reliant on corporations for providing a social safety net for their employees and their dependents. Unlike most of the rich world, the U.S. expects employers to provide health insurance and retirement security. The problems with America’s health care sector are well-documented. Somewhat less known is how the transition from traditional corporate pensions to 401(k) plans has left a generation of Baby Boomers severely under-prepared for retirement. Clearly, the disappearance of corporations is leaving major holes in the social safety net.
"Second, the loss of public corporations leaves fewer policy levers at the Federal level. Big and concentrated firms are easier targets for regulation. During the Nixon Administration, the 25 biggest U.S. corporations employed nearly 10% of the civilian workforce. When OSHA wanted to improve workplace safety, or the Consumer Product Safety Commission wanted to ensure safer products, or the EPA wanted to curb big polluters, or the EEOC sought to reduce workplace discrimination, they could target a few of the biggest firms and have a large and immediate impact, particularly when these big firms encouraged their major suppliers to follow their lead. Moreover, because corporate law is made at the state level rather than the federal level, Congress has less leverage over businesses that are not publicly traded. Many Congressional efforts to rein in business happen through securities law and regulation. The long title of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977, aimed at curbing bribery of foreign officials, is “An Act to amend the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to make it unlawful for an issuer of securities registered pursuant to section 12 of such Act or an issuer required to file reports pursuant to section 15(d) of such Act to make certain payments to foreign officials and other foreign persons, to require such issuers to maintain accurate records, and for other purposes.” Thus, it primarily applied to firms listed on U.S. markets (although its reach has been extended). Similarly, the “conflict minerals” provision of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, which requires firms to disclose whether their products contain minerals mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo that might fund warlords, applies to Hewlett Packard (which is listed on the stock market) but not Dell (which is private)."

我会增加一些想法。首先,在公共公司的下降告诉我们一些关于成为一家公共公司的成本和福利:特别是,它表明成本更高,益处较低。那些希望对公共公司提高成本的人应该考虑正在发生的权衡。

其次,在实际意义上,小型投资者可以在公共公司购买库存 - 无论是直接还是通过指数和养老基金 - 看到这些公司的福利。与私营公司一起,通常的小型投资者没有一个简单的时间找到参与这些收益的方法。

最后,较少的公共公司意味着对公司的决策,更少的公开洞察力。我的猜测是随着时间的推移,这将倾向于为公司形式创造一些额外的敌意(并且已经有很多东西)。