2017年9月29日星期五

采访劳伦斯卡茨:不平等,移动等等

道格拉斯·克莱门特的《劳伦斯·卡茨访谈》非常精彩该区域从2017年9月25日发布的Minneapolis联邦储备银行。副标题读:“哈佛经济学家,性别支付差距,裂缝工作场所以及在孩子的生命中早期搬到一个好社区的重要性。”面试提供了很多咀嚼。在这里,我将沿着一些Katz关于几个点的想法。

其中一个问题是工资不平等加剧的原因。Katz(与合著者Claudia Goldin)认为,工资不平等加剧的最重要原因是,在对熟练劳动力不断增长的需求和熟练劳动力不断增长的供给之间的竞争中,需求已经大幅飙升。这意味着,解决不平等问题的长期对策应该是大幅提高接受高等教育的美国人的比例。然而,其他人强调了可能与不平等的作用相关的其他问题,比如国际竞争加剧的影响,或者指出,公司高管收入的增加似乎与受过大学教育的熟练工人的短缺没有明显联系。在这次采访中,卡茨认为,对熟练劳动力的需求不断增长仍然是加剧工资不平等的主要原因,而从公共部门接受高质量高等教育的美国人比例的大幅增加是合适的答案。他说:
“2016年,大学溢价继续增长。另一张图表是我最喜欢的。它试图在200年里把所有的东西都放在一起. ...

"There is no systematic survey or data prior to the 1940s census on wages. But there was one very important employer in the United States who kept good records going back to the 1820s: the U.S. military when they were hiring civilian employees at forts all around the country. They would hire a blacksmith or clerk or day laborer and write down the employee’s characteristics and the wage they were paid and look at the gap between, for example, a clerical worker and a production worker working at a fort.
“从经济历史学家Bob Margo的军事工资系列组合的基于19世纪的技能高级数据的图表表明,在早期大幅下滑之前,技能溢价持续增加(送入高中运动)20世纪。我们的最佳证据表明,随着从手工店转向更大和更大的机械化工厂,有一个大需求 - 随着个别企业的规模增长 - 对于工程师,管理者,会计师和职员,相对于工艺工人以及甚至相对于其他生产工人。...
“如果你看看过去30年,不平等的程度有了很大的增加,你可以用基尼系数.对于家庭家庭来说,你可以为个人做这件事。这一增加的大部分是上层 - 我不会声明在很大程度上是教育回归。但即使我们排除了下降的0.5%[收入分配],差异很大;我们估计,尽可能最近,大约三分之二的[不平等增加]是由于教育工资溢价的增长。几乎所有这一切都是高中学院和大学后。因此,如果您在1980年级别保留了大学溢价,那么您只会看到美国盈利不平等的大大要来。......
"What the government has done—in the ’50s and ’60s, even into the ’70s—is invested heavily in high-quality colleges. Think of University of California campuses or Florida State. But since then, there’s been very little investment in expanding quality higher education. There’s increased crowding at community colleges and state universities, and states have greatly cut back on appropriations for higher education, particularly in the Great Recession.
"The federal government has continued to have an important role, but it’s done it with flexible support through Pell grants targeted to low-income students. The problem is that we’ve had a surge of really low-quality colleges, and the worst of that is the for-profit sector, which克劳迪娅,大卫·戴明和我研究过.Particularly from the late ’90s to 2011 with this very large wage premium and funneling more federal funding into loans and Pell grants, a big part of that marginal growth—particularly for disadvantaged individuals—was at for-profit institutions for both associate’s degrees and bachelor’s degrees.
“这有点像一场灾难。尽管这些营利性机构一直在努力跟上时代,非常灵活,提供高质量的在线教学,但我们一再发现,营利性机构的学位项目几乎没有什么经济回报;相反,它变成了一个巨大的债务陷阱。我认为传统的公立或私立非营利大学在质量和能力、师资和同伴效应方面有一些值得说的。
”,而不是已经相当于高中动作更多加州大学校园或佛罗里达公立大学,所以我们没有配给获得优质公共colleges-we允许的以营利为目的的私营部门来作为一个灵活的创造性也敏捷的捕食者。”
第二个主题涉及经典的社会科学问题:在多大程度上通过居住在主要低收入社区的低收入的人?如果代替低收入人民融入了中等收入或高收入社区,那么与该社区的学校和公共服务,以及同伴的效果和社会联系,它会有多少差异。这搬到机会学习基于一个社会实验,其中一些低收入人员有搬迁到更高收入界的激励和可能性。Katz是Katz是这个实验的主要调查员,他以这种方式描述了它:

示范项目在五个城市进行:波士顿、巴尔的摩、芝加哥、纽约和洛杉矶。符合条件的家庭居住在最贫困的人口普查区域,贫困率超过40%。
“通过彩票,MTO允许人们跳队列获取住房凭证,提供住房支持,以生活在他们选择的一个地区。有三组:如果他们想去的实验组,必须转向低贫困地区move and received mobility counseling assistance as well, a second treatment group that received vouchers but wasn’t required to live in a low-poverty area, and a third group, the control group, who stayed where they were and kept their regular housing support. And we’ve been tracking them for 20 years.
“第一个问题是,即使有这些代金券,我们是否真的能让大量家庭搬到低贫困社区。我们认为他们中有三分之一的人能够做出这样的举动。但是,事实上,通过这些家庭和辅导员的努力工作,几乎一半的实验组家庭租住在一个低贫困地区. ...
“我们发现搬到机会的内容是短暂的,它清楚地使家人更快乐和更健康的成年人。福祉和安全的措施得到了改善。暴力暴露有很大的减少。但是,在经济上,没有多少为父母改变了。
"But it’s significant that at the time of the moves, at baseline, we asked people why they wanted to move, and very few said they were moving because they were looking for a better job. Almost always it was safety, wanting to get out of more violent areas, worried for their kids. Or it was trying to improve their housing conditions.
“我们在成人健康五年内看到了一年的巨大改善,五年来,成人健康10至15年。肥胖,抑郁症,糖尿病和生物标志物的长期压力指标。这是相当于你的在成人健康和心理健康的长期改善方面,最好的抗抑郁药和最佳运动和饮食计划!
"So until we did the latest study on long-term effects on the kids, the message from MTO has been that there were huge benefits to a family’s well-being and health, but not much economically, and we weren’t finding much on test scores for kids. We had a little bit of evidence of positive things for girls and, if anything, the boys were looking a bit negative. ...
"When we looked at those same kids who didn’t look that different in their school performance but were less involved in violent crime as adolescents, they seemed to be assimilating types of social capital that may not show up on standardized tests, a sort of savvy of living in a different type of neighborhood. As Chetty, Hendren and I observe, the younger MTO children becoming adults, we see them more likely to go to and persist in college, and we see them much more likely to work, and an almost 40 percent impact in their mid-20s on earnings. It really looks like a powerful impact."
这里一个有趣而重要的教训是,要想了解完整的故事,往往需要观察一系列的结果衡量标准。例如,低收入家庭的父母没有获得更高的收入,但他们的压力水平和健康状况显著改善。来自低收入家庭的孩子在学校考试成绩上没有进步,但他们参与犯罪的可能性更小,上大学的可能性更大,工作的可能性更大。对于典型的年轻人来说,他们的考试成绩和学术成就通常不需要很高;毕竟,无法逃避的算术现实是,平均的学生将会有平均的分数!但是,那些拥有社会联系、有可能性感、坚持不断学习和成长的年轻人,可以把他们平均的学业成绩转化为成功的成年生活。