星期五,5月14日,2021年

采访克里斯托弗PISSARIDES:失业与劳动力市场

麦克海斯·惠梅和安娜伯恩萨克的麦肯锡全球学院采访了克里斯托弗猪诺贝尔,'10)“关于他如何制定失业的匹配理论,Covid-19如何影响他的研究,大流行后的劳动力市场可能是储存的”(5月12日,“向克里斯托弗Pissarides爵士的失业思考”)。在网站上,音频可用于半小时的采访,以及编辑的成绩单,我将在这里绘制。

作为一个起点,记住劳动力市场总是有用的是,同时都有一部正在寻找有职位空缺的工作和雇主的失业者。例如,美国经济有关于2021年3月970万名失业工人,同时,雇主在上市8.,100万个职位空缺。实际上,从2018年4月到2020年4月的延伸 - 并非所有那么多美国经济的职位空缺数量超过失业人数在每月数据中。

乍一看,这一数百万个职位空缺和数百万失业的这种组合似乎是一个难题。为什么失业者只是乘坐空缺的工作?这是猪的进来的地方。他强调的是,失业和招聘不仅仅是对原始数字,而且涉及匹配过程。大多数雇主大多数时候,不要只是雇用穿过前门的第一个人,而是寻找他们渴望的技能的好匹配。大多数工人,大多数时候都知道他们如果这是他们想要的,那么可以获得某些类型的低工资工作,但他们正在寻找能够提供的技能的好匹配。解决失业的政策或帮助失业的工人,需要在这个匹配过程的背景下进行审议。这是PissArides:

[u]纽扣是一个非常严重的问题,即我认为政府应该始终处理。这是贫困的原因,占劳动力市场,苦难的削弱。...... [b]我们这样做的工作,人们正在考虑失业作为一种工人,作为一些工人,如果你喜欢,那么谁无法获得工作。他们将从市场的顶端开始,说:“这是这种经济需求的产出量,这就是要求多少。然后你需要多少人生产输出?“然后你会想出一个数字。然后他们会说,“好吧,有多少工作人员想要工作?”如果有更多的工人想要工作,则会调用差异失业。..

我们所做的就是从下面开始,说劳动力市场的结果是寻找工作的工人的结果,公司寻找工人。两者需要走到一起。他们需要同意,工人的资格是该公司的合适组。一旦公司拥有首都,那么工人需要充分利用他或她的技能。失业保险政策可能会影响工人需要采取工作的激励措施。税收政策可能会影响公司的激励措施。一旦您打开了这样的领域,它会为您提供在该领域的研究中的无限可能性,并在失业时锻炼这些不同政策或不同特征的影响。......

[T]he time that it takes to find that job depends on how many jobs are being offered in the labor market, what types of skills firms want, what incentives the worker has to accept the jobs, what’s the structure of production, the profit that the firm expects to make, conditions overall in the market. All those things influence the duration of unemployment. Therefore you could study there—how long does the worker remain unemployed? What could influence that duration? What could make it shorter? What would make it longer if you did

确定的事情?在此基础上,您可以促进失业的良好政策,他们仍然是政府使用的政策,实际上是努力解决人们仍然失业的长期以及失业的影响是什么。

那么来自这种方法的一些见解是什么?这匹配过程的失业率可能是经济中的良好一件:

[l] ows失业比可能存在的东西对劳动力市场并不总是件好事,因为由于匹配问题,一些失业率很好。If a worker becomes unemployed, or if a new worker leaves school, a person leaves school, gets into the labor market, is a new worker, it wouldn’t be a good idea to accept the first job that is offered on day one and get into it. Because it may not be the job that would bring out the best productivity from that worker, or the job that that worker would like best. Now, you might say it’s obvious, and I now think it is, but when we were working on it, this didn’t exist.

在设计失业保险时:

[I]f you offer unemployment compensation, which is necessary to reduce poverty caused by unemployment, then you have to be careful when you’re doing that, because if you just offer it unconditionally, it’s going to create disincentives for people to take jobs, and it’s going to lengthen the duration of unemployment. Therefore it’s going to increase your unemployment incidence. You are going to see more people unemployed, because they stay unemployed longer, collecting benefits. Now, that’s been exploited a lot by politicians. I don’t agree with that way, that they say, we have to cut benefits because of these incentives.

A better way of dealing with it is to say, we need to structure our unemployment compensation policy in such a way that it deals with the poverty issue, but at the same time it doesn’t create those disincentives that you might get if you offer it unconditionally. The leading countries that develop policies that give exactly the answer to the question I’ve just posed, how to structure it, are mainly the Scandinavians—Denmark, Sweden, Norway. And other countries have followed them now, and most of them do follow this advice of structuring the benefit in such a way that the incentives are not harmed very much when you are dealing with the poverty issue of unemployment.
关于再培训计划:
Retringing需要由公司提供,因为他们是那些能够在训练和在多大程度上知道的那些。然而,为了成功的培训,它也必须从外面资助,因为除了非常大的公司之外,我想除了非常大的公司,如果他们正在运行其他一些其他人的风险,就会承担昂贵的培训计划上的工人公司将在培训后从他们的工人带走。有这个偷猎问题。......

Then the other issue is that training succeeds when the worker owns the training, in the sense that the worker is doing the training not because someone forced that worker to do the training, but because they believe that it’s good for them and their career, and it’s going to give them career progression and a pay raise. ... Somehow maybe part of the amount should be given to the worker, then the worker chooses how to spend it. They cannot take it as money, but they could draw on a fund, a training fund. Singapore has a very good scheme like that. I think it’s called技能用法。其他一些国家正在介绍它。这不是一件容易的事情,但我们现在有足够的经历了解如何规划这些类型的培训支持方案。